Orange County Mid-Term Turnout Outpaces 2022 as Voters Head to the Polls

Orange County voters headed into Election Day with early turnout outpacing the previous mid-term election four years ago, even as participation lagged behind the levels recorded during the 2024 presidential election. By the end of the business day on Monday, local voters had turned in approximately 662,560 ballots, representing about 35% of all registered voters in the county.

Orange County Registrar of Voters Bob Page stated that while the current voting pace remains significantly below the mark set in 2024, the numbers reflect a much higher level of participation than what was recorded at the same point during the 2022 mid-terms.

political analysts and local political party leaders point to key municipal, state assembly, and congressional races that will measure the changing political dynamics of the region. University of California, Irvine political science professor Louis DeSipio noted that while polling indicates Democrats typically perform well in mid-term elections when opposing the sitting president, the exact extent of those potential gains remains an open question across the county.

DeSipio identified Huntington Beach as a central testing ground for shifting political trends, observing that results in the city council races will show whether political composition is shifting in an area where Republicans have historically maintained dominance as Orange County becomes increasingly purple.

Local assembly contests are drawing similar attention, including the race for the 72nd Assembly District, where Democrat Chris Kluwe, a former Minnesota Vikings punter, is competing against Republican Gracey Van Der Mark, a former mayor of Huntington Beach. Orange County GOP Chairman Will O’Neill told a local news report that he expects a close contest, noting that while Democrats spent over seven figures on Kluwe, high voter turnout in Huntington Beach—the largest city in the district—would work against the Democratic effort.

Orange County Democratic Party Chair Florice Hoffman concurred that the 72nd District contest should be tight. Hoffman also highlighted two other closely watched state assembly races: the 36th District matchup between Democrat Chris Duncan and Republican state Sen. Tony Strickland, and the 74th District contest featuring Democrat Sergio Farias against Republican Assemblywoman Laurie Davies. Hoffman expressed confidence in broader Democratic prospects, telling a local news report that she expected a blue wave on Election Day.

Regarding federal contests, Hoffman predicted that Democratic incumbents across Orange County will hold their current congressional seats. O’Neill noted that flipping those seats would require exceptionally high Republican turnout, adding that Proposition 50—a congressional redistricting measure designed to increase Democratic seats in response to Republican redistricting efforts in other states—created additional hurdles for Republican candidates seeking to flip districts.

In one of the county's toughest congressional districts based on registration figures, Democratic Rep. Robert Garcia of Long Beach is facing Republican Brian Burley of the Huntington Beach City School District. DeSipio suggested that Garcia took on the challenging district to strengthen his position for potential House leadership roles if Democrats manage to secure a House majority.

DeSipio is also monitoring the 40th Congressional District, where incumbent Republicans Ken Calvert and Young Kim are competing. DeSipio characterized the race as a clash between traditional Republicans and a new wave within the party, adding that Kim reflects the more ethnically diverse segments of Orange County.

At the county level, attention is focused on the Orange County Board of Supervisors Vice Chair Katrina Foley, a Democrat, who is seeking another term against Republican Assemblywoman Diane Dixon. DeSipio remarked that Foley built a coalition including center-right voters, which could aid her, while noting Dixon possesses substantial campaign resources but must broaden her base to prevail.

Hoffman stated that Republican organizers previously redrew Foley’s district to favor Republicans, yet Foley won the seat twice and prevailed in the primary. Hoffman added that high turnout in the district favors Democratic prospects. Meanwhile, O’Neill characterized the Foley-Dixon race as tight while voicing confidence in Republican candidate Tim Shaw, who is running against Democrat Connor Traut to succeed Orange County Board Chairman Doug Chaffee. While acknowledging strong Democratic voter registration and turnout in that district, O’Neill cited Shaw’s long history in the community as a key factor keeping the race competitive.